Spain's Energy Savings Certificates (CAE) market is accelerating dramatically. After a record-breaking 2025, several signals indicate that the supply of certificates could exceed demand as early as 2027, with direct consequences on prices for buyers and investors.
A market that changed scale in 2025
In 2025, the Spanish scheme recorded nearly 5.8 TWh of certified energy savings, compared with around 2 TWh in the previous period. This ramp-up came with nearly 3,922 applications filed and an estimated investment volume of between €1,800 and €2,200 million, representing savings growth of around 190% over the year.
This momentum confirms that energy efficiency is establishing itself as a genuine investment driver, attracting industrial players, suppliers and certificate buyers in search of reliable volumes.
Why a shift into surplus is likely
The market mechanism rests on a financial equivalence set each year by the authorities. As the number of eligible projects rises and annual obligations are met, the stock of available certificates grows. Several analysts anticipate a move into surplus over the 2026-2027 period, which would put downward pressure on prices.
Key takeaway: a market in surplus benefits CAE buyers, who can secure volumes on more favorable terms, but requires sellers to anticipate price movements.
What opportunities for certificate buyers?
- Secure CAE supply contracts now, before prices stabilize.
- Diversify the portfolio between Spanish certificates (CAE) and neighboring schemes such as the French CEE.
- Rely on a specialized broker to access negotiated volumes and a fine-grained reading of the market.
For companies buying energy savings certificates, the current window is an opportunity to plan their purchases in a market that is still maturing.
E-Station support
As an energy broker, E-Station supports buyers and investors in the environmental certificates market: Spanish CAE, French CEE, biomethane certificates and guarantees of origin. Our team negotiates volumes and structures operations internationally.
Would you like to buy or trade CAE certificates? Contact E-Station at [email protected].
CAE: anticipating the market to make the most of your certificates
The CAE (energy savings certificates) rests on a supply-and-demand mechanism: obligated parties buy certificates to meet their quotas, while project developers sell them. A shift of the market into surplus, expected as early as 2027, would mechanically weigh on prices and reshuffle the cards for market players. For those who produce or hold CAE, the timing of monetisation becomes strategic. Following energy-market news through reference sources such as Reuters helps anticipate these shifts.
In a market set to ease, two reflexes are essential: securing the monetisation of your certificates before a possible decline, and structuring your operations with a partner able to optimise the timing and the channel of sale. The value of a CAE depends as much on the mechanism as on the execution.
Monetise your CAE with E-Station
E-Station supports companies and project developers in monetising their energy savings certificates. We help you secure your operations, choose the right timing for sale and optimise the value of your CAE in a changing market.
Do you hold or produce CAE? Contact our teams to assess and monetise your certificates.
Frequently asked questions about the Spanish CAE market
What is the CAE scheme in Spain?
These are Spain's Energy Savings Certificates, a scheme that recorded nearly 5.8 TWh of certified energy savings in 2025, up from around 2 TWh in the previous period.
Why could the CAE market tip into surplus as early as 2027?
Several signals suggest that the supply of certificates could outstrip demand by that point, which would have a direct impact on prices for buyers and investors.
How significant was market growth in 2025?
The volume of certified savings grew by around 190% over the year, with nearly 3,922 applications filed and an estimated investment of between 1,800 and 2,200 million euros.
Who invests in Spanish CAE certificates?
The scheme attracts industrials, suppliers and buyers, with energy efficiency emerging as a genuine investment driver in Spain.
What should buyers anticipate given this surplus risk?
Support from a broker makes it possible to track the evolving supply-demand balance and adjust one's valuation strategy before prices are affected by a certificate surplus.
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